Thinking about causality

What you should know

The investigator, the jury, and the judge

Fisher and experiments

John Snow and natural experiments

Double blind studies

Control variables (ANCOVA)

Judea Pearl: Problems with control variables

Moderation, mediation, and lurking variables

Simpson's paradox

Challenge: Moderation, mediation, or a third variable

Solution: Moderation, mediation, or a third variable

Turing, Enigma, and CAPTCHA

Enigma and uncertainty

Developing an intuition for Bayes with Wordle

Wordle and conditional probability

Wordle, bans, and bits

Wordle and Bayes' theorem

Challenge: Conditional probability and Bayes' theorem

Solution: Conditional probability and Bayes' theorem

Contrasting frequentist statistics and Bayesian statistics

Bayesian T-Test with JASP

Google Optimize

Bayes and rare events

Challenge: JASP

Solution: JASP

Sewell Wright

Introducing path analysis and SEM

SEM example: Intention

Myths about SEM

Latent variables in SEM

Finding direction of causality with SEM (PSAT)

Judea Pearl and the causal revolution

Downloading BayesiaLab and resources

Introducing BayesiaLab: Hair and eye color

Introduction to causal modeling with Bayesian networks

Bayesian Networks: Black Swan case study

Taking causality further